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 Subject :Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat 8212 7-10-1.. 2016-11-09 04:35:41 
angiegraham116
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9:18Jeff Sullivan: Hey guys, sorry, its bad timing for a chat in the center of moving. But Ill do what I can!

 

9:18Jeff Sullivan: Ill not be this late again within my life!

 

9:18Jeff Sullivan: Let's focus on the baseball

 

9:19Comment From Mattwould you trade Desmond for Samardjza? keeper league

 

9:19Jeff Sullivan: Reminder which i dont deal well with fantasy questions! Because I dont understand how to respond to them, since i dont play.

 

9:19Comment From bradIf you could ban one type of stat from baseball broadcasts forever, what would it's?

 

9:19Jeff Sullivan: wins for pitchers, game-winning RBI or whatever for hitters

 

9:19Jeff Sullivan: but to tell the truth I dont really pay attention anymore to the stats being displayed. so I dont understand what the norm is these days

 

9:19Comment In the Dude AbidesHave you ever argued with your bo s mid meeting?

 

9:20Jeff Sullivan: I wouldnt say argue, but I have openly expre sed skepticism that such meetings are e sential and productive

 

9:20Jeff Sullivan: On the related note, the FanGraphs staff no longer has weekly Skype meetings

 

9:21Comment From JaackWho is the worst player you've ever observed in the majors?

 

9:21Jeff Sullivan: Anthony Vasquez

 

9:21Jeff Sullivan: If you don't count Adam Greenberg? He was probably very bad

 

9:22Comment From XoloWhat team will give the most away in the trade deadline and do you think itll cost it?

 

9:22Jeff Sullivan: I saw the Padres turning ultra-aggre sive, selling more than the Phillies and Reds. The latter two will have the best pieces for sale, however the Padres could drown them in volume

 

9:22Jeff Sullivan: If the Padres go this way, they should clear enough salary. I dont think theyll get great prospects back, however

 

9:23Comment From Mike HWhat sort of return do you think the As might get for a package of both Kazmir and Zobrist?

 

9:23Jeff Sullivan: The advantage of selling Zobrist is that he could help almost literally each and every team within the race at the moment so therell be a lot of demand

 

9:24Jeff Sullivan: Kazmirs price is down some on account of his Cristobal Huet Jersey little pains and aches, but still, for all those two, youre looking at 2 or 3 close-to-ready young players

 

9:24Jeff Sullivan: Expect the As to, once more, concentrate on players who can help when next season

 

9:26Comment From BretA package for both Mat Latos and Dan Haren shouldnt cost you a crazy amount, should it? And it would probably be considered a major upgrade for Torontos rotation.

 

9:27Jeff Sullivan: Well, theres the problem of Harens willingne s. Not that he has no-trade rights, and that he did ultimately wind up pitching for Miami, however the Jays may not wish to pick up a pitcher who isnt delighted through the idea of pitching in Toronto

 

9:29Jeff Sullivan: Anyway, Haren wouldnt come free, because the Marlins arent paying him anything. Theres no salary to defend myself against, giving him value. Latos continues to be better lately, so hes appearing like a good thing. Were not talking Hoffman or Norris here, but the Jays wouldnt be able to get these arms for dirt cheap

 

9:30Comment From MSWJean Segura, upgrading for the Mets? DC doesnt think so, but at least maybe has some upside?

 

9:32Jeff Sullivan: Theres some upside there, and the Mets clearly want to feel more stable about their middle-infield defense. Segura obviously is light on hitting, but hes more defensively reliable, a true shortstop the kind of which doesnt exist in the Mets upper levels. It wouldnt be considered a franchise-changer, but Segura would at least addre s *one* question

 

9:33Jeff Sullivan: Youd want to see them set their sights higher, but maybe they check this out as a potential buy-low when Segura was 23, he was worth 3.5 wins. And the shortstop marketplace is type of weak

 

9:33Comment From LukasAre the Mets too injured for purchasing to become worthwhile? Or should they try to take advantage of a weak NL East this season?

 

9:34Jeff Sullivan: I dont think it makes sense for them to create a huge splash, however Im unsure what splashes are available. Simply no harm in little upgrades. When they had the ability to get Ben Zobrist somehow, thatd be huge. They almost have enough to make the playoffs. Might as well navigate the deadline without giving away the crucial bits

 

9:34Comment From JCA CPA CAHow much value would a replacement level player have if he would face 10 pitches per AB?

 

9:35Jeff Sullivan: His value could be pretty damn low. It wouldnt be exactly replacement-level, because he *would* exhaust the other starting pitcher, Michael Jordan Jersey but bullpens nowadays are extremely good theres not a distinct advantage from dealing with them. Hed help within series, tiring bullpens out slightly more than a typical player, but youre still talking about a group weakne s

 

9:36Comment From JohnWhat can the Twins expect from Ervin Santana the rest of the season?

 

9:37Jeff Sullivan: A No. 3 inside a rotation filled with No. 3 and No. 4 starters

 

9:38Comment From JimMike Trout is currently at 34.6 career WAR. Gun to your head, what can his career WAR look like if he'd come up with the Mariners system?

 

9:38Jeff Sullivan: Oh man

 

9:38Jeff Sullivan: This is everything

 

9:38Jeff Sullivan: On one side, Trout appears like the type of talent that nobody could conceivably ruin. On the other hand, Dustin Ackley! Ill say 25.

 

9:40Comment From FTFShould the Indians go for it having a trade ? Have they got any valuable minor focal point in bring the gamer that they need ? (a CF or 3B I a sume)

 

9:41Jeff Sullivan: The Indians are close enough and good enough to be interesting, but theyre far back enough that I dont think they should cough up much talent for that short-term. Not really clear just how much they need they project to be succe sful. All of those other way, the Indians po se s the third-best projected winning percentage within the AL

 

9:42Comment From Michael BluthSo, Kazmir for Singleton, Zobrist and Chavez for (Starlin) Castro and Edwards. When the As can sell, why not land some nice, measured contracts?

 

9:43Jeff Sullivan: Whatever argument I could make against those, I cant make quickly from the surface of my head. Regardle s of how realistic they might be, I think thats a decent approximate of what Beane may be looking for

 

9:43Jeff Sullivan: Po sible he wouldnt would like to get himself tangled up in Castros long-term deal, however, you can understand why hed be an appealing buy-low

 

9:44Comment From mtswI get that the pre-season projections are more predictive going forward than Pythag, W/L or BaseRuns, but now that the Red Sox look like theyre hanging within the race again, can we a minimum of be spared the concept that theyve played well to date? Given how the teams have played theyre fortunate to not be FURTHER behind the Blue Jays and Orioles, regardle s of the undelying amount of talent around the teams are.

 

9:44Jeff Sullivan: Whos arguing the Red Sox have played well?

 

9:45Jeff Sullivan: The Sox are 41-45. BaseRuns has them at 40-46. Thats bad

 

9:45Comment From UnluckiestChatteroftheMilleniumWill the Depth Charts be updated at some point (maybe after the trade deadline)? It seems like every player I lookup has exceeded their projected ABs.

 

9:45Jeff Sullivan: Those are projections over the remaining season

 

9:46Comment From JimWill the NL be pretty boring for the following three months because we already realize how the playoffs will lineup?

 

9:46Jeff Sullivan: No, because we dont

 

9:46Jeff Sullivan: Even the freakin Diamondbacks are right at .500

 

9:47Jeff Sullivan: The po sibilities obviously strong for the five teams currently in playoff positions, only one of them will most likely slip up or another person can get hot

 

9:48Comment From Cincinnati KidWill Puig decipher it or perhaps is he only a good OBP guy and absolutely nothing else?

 

9:48Jeff Sullivan: Hes plenty else

 

9:48Jeff Sullivan: Yasiel Puig is frustrating, but hes extremely very good

 

9:49Comment From HappyFunBallIf you were the Nationals, will you be prepared to trade Desmond if your decent offer came around? If you were another MLB exec, what type of offer can you alllow for half a season of Ian Desmond?

 

9:49Jeff Sullivan: I dont think its a coincidence that Trea Turner was recently bumped up to Triple-A

 

9:50Jeff Sullivan: But I still dont check this out like a trading situation. Contending teams are unlikely to consider a shot on someone with Desmonds numbers. And the Nationals are unlikely to further deplete their depth by selling low on accommodations shortstop. Right now this appears like a situation where the Nats might choose to extend a qualifying offer

 

9:52Comment From davidWhy havent Mets put Matz around the DL already.

 

9:52Jeff Sullivan: maybe theyre still deciding who to bring up

 

9:52Comment From adamwhat two man team in FG would have the best shot on Naked & Afraid?

 

9:52Jeff Sullivan: I dont know what that's so Ill say Carson by himself

 

9:53Comment From Sonny Grays Flulike SymptomsAny predictions on where Zobrist, Kazmir, Clippard, and Chavez wind up?

 

9:53Jeff Sullivan: Not too these are worth anything, but lets see:

 

9:54Jeff Sullivan: Zobrist: Cubs

 

9:54Jeff Sullivan: Kazmir: Pirates

 

9:55Jeff Sullivan: Clippard: Nationals!

 

9:55Jeff Sullivan: Chavez: Astros?

 

9:58Comment From JCA CPA CAWith the specialization of bullpen if it is compatible, switch hitters would have more quality? So if you will find 3 free agents who all hit exactly the same, what money would a Switch Hitter get when compared to lefty or righty?

 

9:58Jeff Sullivan: Its not a perfect comparison, but Victor Martinez got $10 million more than Nelson Cruz

 

9:59Jeff Sullivan: Kendrys Morales got multiple years despite a godawful 2014

 

9:59Jeff Sullivan: Obviously, Michael Morse got a similar deal

 

10:00Jeff Sullivan: but Morse was better in 2014. Youre looking at, I dont know, $1 Two million extra per year?

 

10:00Comment From GaryHow do you come up with the daily game odds? Make use of the projected lineups? It must consider injuries, right?

 

10:00Jeff Sullivan: It comes down to the pitchers and also the team talents. Then theyre updated whenever we po se s the actual announced starting lineups

 

10:02Comment From JonnyAccounting for salary/arbitration and age, and a suming you dont have limitle s funds, couldnt you argue that Brad Miller worth more for an organization than Tulo continuing to move forward?

 

10:03Jeff Sullivan: You could make the argument. It might not function as the most convincing argument, but its a disagreement that would make a much more sense to the, say, As, rather than the Yankees. Miller obviously isnt on Tulos level right now. Tulo, though, should be expected to say no, and Miller is very inexpensive. Theyre very different valuable players

 

10:05Comment From Jason TynerAll you'd to complete to get me out was stand 2 or 3 guys within the foul territory outside first base!

 

10:05Jeff Sullivan: 4.03 When the ball is put in play at the beginning of, or during a game, all fielders other than the catcher shall Tomas Kopecky Jersey be on fair territory.

 

10:06Comment From FTFWill Carlos Gomes be traded ? Where do you consider ?

 

10:07Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, I believe Gomez is out the doorway. Short-term player, and hes not re-signing in Milwaukee. Destinations are le s obvious. Cubs could make some sense. Indians could be really interesting.

 

10:07Comment From Sonny Grays Flulike SymptomsKazmir to Houston is a no-brainer, right? They seem to be the very best fit and maybe Beane can squeeze them just a little harder using the division rival narrative.

 

10:08Jeff Sullivan: Pretty obvious fit, however Kazmir is a fit in a lot of places. Hes a playoff-rotation pitcher, and 2 dozen teams are searching for one of those

 

10:08Comment From BrandonHelp Jeff my personal favorite player is incorporated in the Home Run Derby and I dont want him to be harmful to the rest of the season What Should I DO?

 

10:09Jeff Sullivan: Get yourself into crippling debt, so you have something legitimate to fret about

 

10:10Comment From TRJeff, when the Jays were to stand pat using their starting rotation who'd you start in a wild-card game? Sad to think that I might pick Marco Estrada.

 

10:10Jeff Sullivan: I had been going to expre s it might depend on the opponent, but then Estrada and Buehrle have like non-existent platoon splits

 

10:11Jeff Sullivan: Still, Buehrle against a lefty-heavy team, Estrada against a righty-heavy team. And then you hope the lineup clobbers the hell from whoever it faces

 

10:12Comment From GuestoSo.how bad is Tyler Featherson?

 

10:12Jeff Sullivan: Remember Josh Rutledge? Kind of weird we havent seen him. But then Featherston barely has any responsibilities so its not really a big deal

 

10:14Comment From MartinWhy does FIP (and pitcher fWAR) use Innings Pitched instead of batters faced? The number of outs recorded is fielding-dependent.

 

10:15Jeff Sullivan: I could be wrong however i think its only for simplicity. What youll find is it makes hardly any difference over decently large samples

 

10:17Jeff Sullivan: Heres a brief and very old thread http://www.baseball-fever.c

 

10:17Comment In the Dude AbidesCan starting a practice in the ASG in which the fans vote to look at players play roles they are not suited to? Im thinking Bartolo Colon at SS, CC Sabathia as a pinch runner, etc.

 

10:17Jeff Sullivan: And then the players, in turn, would start another tradition! Of creating up injuries around the eve of the event

 

10:19Comment From JDRangers hitters are crazy left-handed, both in the majors (Fielder, Moreland, Hamilton, Odor, Martin) and minors (Gallo, Mazara, Williams). Would it make sense to trade Choos bad agreement for Kemps?

 

10:19Jeff Sullivan: Sure it might, for that Rangers

 

10:20Jeff Sullivan: Padres could be le s interested in a mature player with a bigger commitment. Youd need to chip in some money or a prospect

 

10:20Comment From XoloDo you think the Padres had the ability to rid themselves of Melvin Upton or are they just likely to hand out Shields and Kimbrel?

 

10:21Jeff Sullivan: They might get rid of him in the same manner the Braves did. Thats about this. They need to decide whether its more important to po se s money or young players

 

10:22Comment From QbertI consider myself a fairly big Mariners fan and have no clue who their owner is, besides some nebulous Nintendo entity. I can name who owns a number of other teams. Is that not weird?

 

10:22Jeff Sullivan: Wikipedia!

 

10:22Jeff Sullivan: Owned by Nintendo of America, the Mariners are among three Major League Baseball teams under corporate ownership; another two would be the Atlanta Braves and the Toronto Blue Jays.

 

10:23Comment From Sean PWhat perform the Orioles need to do to stay in contention?

 

10:24Jeff Sullivan: A second-tier starting pitcher would be nice. And its probably about what should be expected

 

10:25Comment From Brett WWhat may be the return for James Shields if a buyer a sumes the whole contract?

 

10:25Jeff Sullivan: Low. His contract is backloaded just $10 million in salary in 2015 and that he comes with an opt-out clause after the coming year. The Padres would mostly just be seeking to remove the commitment

 

10:25Comment From Dominican LouCan Feliz be considered a useful reliever again?

 

10:25Jeff Sullivan: Mark Lowe returned from the dead

 

10:27Comment From MattDoes a hostile move for Hamels seem Brian Campbell Jersey sensible for Jed, at this time on teams developmental curve?

 

10:27Jeff Sullivan: Sure, in the right price, however with Lester, Arrieta, and Hammel already around, the rotation isnt a ma sive priority, and it probably makes more sense to shore in the position-player depth. Hamels will definitely cost more, I imagine, than the Cubs would be comfortable quitting only at that juncture

 

10:29Comment From _David_Players like Brad Miller, who cant enter into games against same handed pitchers, but dont get this amazing enough sample to judge, could it be a scouting thing based on swing mechanics? Appears like a self fulfilling notion that the player doesnt have a track record against lhp, therefore he doesnt play against lhp

 

10:29Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, youre mostly right. And Miller didnt have awful i sues with lefties in 2013. However this is a problem if you have a group that thinks its in the race it makes decisions based more about the short-term than on long-term development. It would be good for Miller to obtain more reps against southpaws, however the Mariners wish to win today, and theyve decided Miller needs those breaks. You are able to kind of understand, but it is an item of modest frustration

 

10:30Comment From TannerHas anyone at FG every considered of/tried to obtain a job in a MLB front office? Appears like a lot of you guys could be good fits for many teams.

 

10:31Jeff Sullivan: We mostly dont po se s the coding chops. Teams dont have much use for a half-decent writer

 

10:31Jeff Sullivan: Some have looked, some happen to be approached, but teams are searching for real analysts, who know math Kris Versteeg Jersey and stuff. Speaking personally, I fake it

 

10:32Comment From DustinWhats your gut feeling on Cameron Maybin: Guy Atlanta need to look to incorporate into the long-term plan, or trade chip Atlanta should deal for more prospect depth before he becomes a pumpkin?

 

10:33Jeff Sullivan: Keep him. He can be for sale through 2017, and position players of his ilk dont return a lot at the deadline anyway.

 

10:34Jeff Sullivan: Austin Jackson was swapped for Nick Franklin, and at that time over time Jackson were built with a better track record than Maybin.

 

10:34Comment From KevinWhat do you think is the likelihood that Billy Beane loses his job before next years draft?

 

10:35Jeff Sullivan: Effectively zero percent

 

10:35Comment From NickBryce Harper has a top-15 walk rate along with a top-10 ISO of all seasons since 2000. These skills peak late, and Bryce Harper is 22. The conclusion is:

 

10:35Jeff Sullivan: Pitchers dont wish to pitch to Bryce Harper anymore

 

10:36Comment From DaveWhats the best case for Verlander the rest of this year?

 

10:36Jeff Sullivan: His velocity is actually up a little. Thats obviously not everything, but he could still turn himself right into a No. 2

 

10:37Comment From BortWho requires a chance on Feliz? As have a crap bullpen and plenty of knowledge of him from Texas.

 

10:37Jeff Sullivan: The Phillies should throw money at him and then try to get him somewhat fixed to allow them to flip him for prospects annually from now

 

10:38Comment Written by michael HIf the Twins become buyers at the deadline, what types of players would you see them moving?

 

10:38Jeff Sullivan: No one of real note. Expect the Twins to keep pretty quiet

 

10:38Jeff Sullivan: Their attempted big moves were promoting Buxton and Sano

 

10:39Comment From MichaelWhat the heck would be the Mariners likely to do at the deadline? Could they be gonna my to buy? :(

 

10:39Jeff Sullivan: Theyre six out of the wild card and theyre nearly from money. When they drift further back, theyll sell minor odds and ends. If theyre a minimum of this close, theyll hang on and are hoping to make a run

 

10:41Comment From JoshWhere will Cole Hamels end up

 

10:41Jeff Sullivan: I'm wondering when the Padres try to buy and sell in the same time

 

10:43Comment From GuestoIf Brett Gardner hit outdoors market as a FA this upcoming offseason, just how much would he get? $150M?

 

10:44Jeff Sullivan: Not after Chase Headley got 4/$52m. Gardners almost 32 there would be concern that his power is available in large part from playing in New York

 

10:46Comment From GPTWhat do you think the cost of Gerardo Parra is? I would pa sion for the Giants to obtain him and Mike Leake in the deadline.

 

10:47Jeff Sullivan: This past year Parra himself got moved for two pretty forgettable prospects. This season hes been better, but hes also coming up on free agency. Low cost tag for a useful player. Good fit for that Giants

 

10:47Comment From SeanThe common theme from people is that the Diamondbacks are bad and far from contention, but is that really the case? Theyre third within the NL in position player WAR and therefore are young acro s the board. Their pitching is a problem at this time, but with Corbin coming back, Ray and Anderson looking like above-average starters with En Rosa, Bradley, Blair, Shipley, and Webster being MLB-ready prospects. They have the cash to sign a big-name pitcher in the offseason. If one or two of their prospects stick and they sign certainly one of Price/Cueto/Zimmerman, they have to be contenders, right?

 

10:48Jeff Sullivan: Theres some bias playing here people are recorded on the Diamondbacks, because theyre down on the Diamondbacks front office. But thats mostly concern that theyre going to make critically bad decisions. For the moment, they have young pitching, Goldschmidt, and Pollock. Difficult to go too wrong with this foundation

 

10:49Comment From Donnie DrapesWhich single player returns probably the most inside a trade?

 

10:49Jeff Sullivan: Chapman?

 

10:49Comment From KimDo the Mets have anything the Mariners might want/need in exchange for Taylor?

 

10:49Jeff Sullivan: Never anything wrong with collecting young pitching, however i dont think Taylors a great fit.

 

10:50Comment From GeorgeThe padres pieces look pretty elite Upton, Kimbrel, Benoit, po sibly Cashner, Ro s, Kennedy. Why do you think they wont get good pieces back?

 

10:51Jeff Sullivan: Because handful of those players are actually elite, and, say, Kimbrel includes a big contract. Upton comes with an expiring contract. They can get prospects, however they wont have this years Addison Ru sell

 

10:51Comment From ChrisFaced with needing to pick one of the Red Sox, Indians or Mariners to win their respective division, that is your decision?

 

10:51Jeff Sullivan: Sox are only 5.5 back

 

10:53Comment From kidHelp me understand something Bryant and Pederson are similar players; high K%, high BB%, high-power, good athletes with speed. Yet the projection systems have way more faith in Bryant (~.260/.350/.490 Ros) than Pederson (.220/.330/.440). Whatever reason why this might be?

 

10:53Jeff Sullivan: Bryant would be a a bit more destructive in the minors

 

10:53Jeff Sullivan: So one is projected for a 130 wRC+, and yet another 114.

 

10:53Comment From EricIf RA Dickey is constantly on the pitch at replacement level, would you see the Blue Jays moving him to bullpen or releasing him? It appears as though the potential for upside is gone and the option wont be acquired only at that rate.

 

10:53Jeff Sullivan: That team is in no position to stop on a potentially decent starting pitcher

 

10:54Comment From GumpaThe 2015 Jays dont come in your unluckiest teams article while they po se s the highest run differential in the AL with a wide margin (second largest in all of MLB) and therefore are now back to only .500. Is this because Baseruns thinks they shouldnt have scored as frequently as they have?

 

10:54Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, basically. By run differential, the Jays happen to be almost as unlucky because the A Martin Havlat Jersey s. But BaseRuns thinks the Toronto offense has overachieved. So its competing types of opposite luck

 

10:55Comment From MSWJuan Lagares elbow problems seem to be impacting his defense in addition to his offense. With the a lot of his value tangled up in the arm, are the Mets better off having him get Tommy John now?

 

10:55Jeff Sullivan: Much like Masahiro Tanaka, right

 

10:56Jeff Sullivan: I understand no one ever wants to defer to the Mets medical staff, and thats fine, but we shouldnt just a sume Tommy John is nece sary. Maybe he just needs an offseason to heal. And its nothing like the bat was said to be special

 

10:56Comment From mtswAre the Freddie Freeman-le s Braves the worst lineup vs RHP within the league right now? Kinda didnt realize exactly what a crater him being out creates.

 

10:56Jeff Sullivan: I keep hoping for the Braves to complete with more wins than home runs

 

10:56Jeff Sullivan: All right, I have to go. To moving-related chores and whatnot

 

10:57Jeff Sullivan: So thanks everybody for chilling out, and Im sorry for what I didnt or couldnt addre s. Well do it again next week simultaneously, and until then, be well and also have great days

 

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 Subject :Re:Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat 8212 7-10-1.. 2017-03-20 08:19:42 
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